Number of Different Clients Served By A2H Kitchens Annually (4.6)
Our approach to estimating the number of kitchen clients served in a year also closely parallels that used for pantries. It begins with an estimate of the number of different clients served in a week. We then use data on clients’ patterns of use to extrapolate up to an annual estimate. One different factor taken into account is that the sampling unit at the kitchens was adults age 18 and older, rather than households. Therefore, to get a complete measure of clients served, we must use survey data on minors accompanying the adults. As Table 4.6.1 shows, based on the survey weights, an estimated 0.5 million adults used kitchens in a week. Furthermore, there were about 0.3 children per adult. These estimates imply an estimated 0.6 million people using kitchens in a given week.
The next step is to extend this weekly estimate to the month and the year levels. The technique used with pantries—of multiplying the weekly estimates by four weeks per month and then dividing by the average number of times clients use the facility in a month—cannot reasonably be applied to kitchens. This is because kitchen clients tend to use these facilities much more often per week and per month.
An alternative version of the pantry approach is possible, however. Unlike with pantries, the number of people present at kitchens in a given week can be viewed as a reasonable approximation of the clients who are currently using the facility at a given point in time. This allows us to use the week as the unit of observation in parts of the accounting. (More formally, most people who can be viewed as “ongoing,” or current, clients of a kitchen are likely to use the kitchen at least once during a weekly sampling period and thus have a non-zero probability of selection into the survey on a given week. This is not true of ongoing pantry users, most of whom use pantries only once or twice a month.)
Table 4.6.1
DERIVATION OF ESTIMATE OF DIFFERENT PEOPLE
USING KITCHENS ANNUALLY
1. Estimated number of different adults visiting kitchens in a week in areas covered by participating food banks |
0.5 million |
2. Average number of children accompanying adults |
0.3 children per adult |
3. Estimated different adults and children visiting kitchens in a week |
0.6 million |
4. Estimated average monthly percentage of clients who start using kitchens each month a |
13.5 to 16.5 |
5. Estimated new entrants in a year b |
0.9 to 1.1 million |
6. Estimated different adults and children using kitchens in a year |
1.5 to 1.7 million |
7. Adjustment for nonparticipating food banks |
1.23 |
8. Different people served annually by kitchens in the A2H Network |
1.8 to 2.0 million |
Source:
See the Technical Appendix volume for details on the derivation of the table entries.
a Estimated percentage is percentage entering in a month. The base of the estimates is the estimated clients at a given point in time, as approximated by a week.
b Calculated as follows: (11months) × (percentage entering per month from Line 4) × (base estimate of clients at a point in time from Line 3).
The survey question used to identify “newcomer” kitchen clients is essentially the same as that used for the same purpose for pantry clients (Question K70, “Now thinking about the past year, did you or anyone in your household use a soup kitchen . . .). As with pantries, the answer categories are denominated in months of use. Our approach to estimating the percentage of kitchen clients newly receiving services in a given month is based on the percentage of clients responding to the above turnover question by saying that the current month is the only month in the past year that they have been to a kitchen. 1
About 16% of survey respondents at kitchens said that the current month was the first time in at least a 12-month period that they had used an emergency kitchen. As with pantries, there could be considerable margin of error. Therefore, for the estimates, we assumed a range around the 15% estimate: between 13.5% and 16.5%. Beginning with the weekly estimate of 0.6 million clients in Table 4.6.1, then applying this 13.5%-to-16.5% range of possible newcomers each month, yields a range in the estimated number of new clients during the year between 0.9 and 1.1 million. This leads to an annual estimated number of people using kitchens in the areas covered by participating food banks in the range of 1.5 to 1.7 million. Finally, as shown at the bottom of the table, extrapolating this to the entire A2H Network leads to an estimated range of 1.8 to 2.0 million different kitchen clients per year.
1 Even though the weighted survey base is, analytically, “clients in a week,” the question effectively covers a period extending for the entire previous month, because the answer categories read to the respondents are denominated in months.